More random thoughts on cycling

I said yesterday that I thought that this year's TdF could be the year that things start to turn around in cycling. Today I'd like to expand on that idea a little more. I think that there are three key factors driving my thinking on this subject:

1. Cyclists are now getting caught at the time they are cheating. Whether they are stupid, unlucky or the testing's improved, cheats are getting nailed and thrown out of the grand tours. Happened in the Giro, but happened to a much greater extent in the TdF. This is a good thing - it shows that there are real consequences for cheating and that those consequences have a more-than-remote chance of occurring.

2. Sponsors are getting more involved. Rabobank withdrew and fired Rassmussen. T-Mobile and CSC are committed to running clean teams. Slipstream is based on being clean. These things help.

3. Right now the perception in cycling, even among many cyclists, is that everyone dopes, so one has to dope to keep up. If that can change and doping can once again be viewed as something that is not done widely, than it helps those individuals and teams who don't want to dope.

I guess we'll see, but today I'm more hopeful than I've been in a while.

Returning to normal

Life is settling back down a bit, hopefully I'll be able to return to regular blogging. The TdF ended yesterday, and what a fun tour it was! How did I do with my predictions? Not too badly!

George didn't win the prologue, but I did pick 2/3 of the final podium (damn you Vino!) and the green jersey. I should have known better than to put any faith at all in Moreau in the TdF.

I would have won some cash on my Astana bet, lost some on Floyd and lost a bit more on Periero (who finished 10th, way to go).

Overall, the tour was a mess, but it was a tour you had to follow every day or else risk missing something big. In the end, I think that this is the start of a turnaround in cycling, but we'll see.

14:1? You're not even trying

14:1 ratio of testosterone to epitestosterone (which is what Landis had, over the 4:1 limit)? Paah. Peanuts to Matthias Kessler (scroll down the link):

Matthias Kessler...tested positive on April 24, and the test showed a testosterone value of 85:1, while a normal value is 4:1. Professor Wilhelm Schaenzer, leader of the Biochemistry Institute at the Sports School in Cologne, Germany, said that a natural value of over 15 to 20 is "not possible." His is currently suspended by his Astana team.

85:1?! 85:1!!! Jesus. And yes, please note that the team is Astana.

Vino?

Sometimes crazy things happen in the TdF. One thing that frequently gets overlooked in Armstrong's string of victories is his ability to avoid situations like this:

Alexander Vinokourov, the Kazazk rider who many considered to be the favorite in this year's Tour de France, crashed heavily about 15 miles from the end of the hilly, 113-mile fifth stage and lost more than a minute of time to most of the other top riders.

One of the bigger problems now for Vino is that he is about 90 seconds down on his teammate Kloden too. It will be complicated for him to get that time back - he'll either have to smoke Kloden in the time trials (not very likely) or Kloden will have to crack in the mountains (not very likely). Or, of course, he can breech cycling etiquette and attack Kloden. Watching two Astana guys go at it would be fun to watch.

Didn't see the stage yet (I'll catch it tonight). Does anyone know if CSC gunned it after Vino went down?

BOO!

Fuck you, Michael Chertoff:

On Tuesday, Michael Chertoff, the secretary of homeland security, told the editorial board of The Chicago Tribune that he had a “gut feeling” about a new period of increased risk. He said he based his assessment on patterns of terrorists in Europe and intelligence he would not disclose.

Can someone keep the secretary away from the Tex-Mex? "Gut feeling"? Fuck you.

He should be ashamed, but this administration exists beyond shame. Think this shit has anything to do with a desire to change the subject in Washington back to terror and away from the 15 or so smoking-gun investigations currently under way?

If I didn't know better, I'd swear that they are praying for an attack. But I know they wouldn't pray for something like that.

Unbelievable - Part 2

Saw the end of yesterday's stage last night, you know, the one where Fabian Cancellara rides off the front of the pack with 750 meters to go and hold off all the sprinters to win the stage. I don't buy it. Typically this type of move can only be pulled off if there is a lull in the leadout and I certainly didn't see a lull yesterday. Something's up with him.

This is disturbing

I (stupidly) assumed that as the housing market cooled, people would be forced to reduce their spending. I still think that's right, but it may be wrong in the near term:

Revolving credit, mainly credit-card use, rose in May at an annual rate of 9.8% to $894.8 billion.

That's bad for any number of reasons, the two primary being (1) consumers can't use equity to pay off credit cards anymore and (2) as of last year it's much harder to wipe these debts clean through bankruptcy (and please note that I'm not advocating #2 as a strategy, but stating that people will be saddled with these debts for a looooong time since they can't get rid of them).

Unbelievable

In the literal sense of the word. There is no way that Cancellara is clean. No way. I had my suspicions last year after he won both Paris Roubaix and the world TT championships, but after today? Nope. Not buying it Fabian. I'm betting that Kloden is doping (as is everyone on Astana), I'd be willing to believe that Hincapie is (in fact, I'd bet that anyone associated with Disco is too). Two riders I'd be willing to bet are clean are Dave Zabriskie and David Millar. Both are TT specialists. Zabriskie is the reigning US TT champ. Both lost by over 30 seconds to Cancallara today. That's 4 or so seconds a kilometer. It's just not possible.

That's too bad too, because being a CSC rider, Cancellara's performance must call into question the effectiveness of the CSC anti-doping program.

TdF Predicition Time

Prologue tomorrow in London: George Hincapie
Podium: Cadel Evans, Vino and Levi with Kloden and Sastre having outside chances of hitting the podium.
Green jersey: Boonen
Polka Dots: Moreau

Even money on Astana not finishing the TdF.
Floyd's verdict comes late this evening - guilty.

Periero doesn't finish in the top 15 this year.

Cheerleading

From the WSJ:

U.S. employment posted a solid rise last month on strong hiring in health care and government and previous months' gains were revised sharply higher, suggesting labor market conditions remain very supportive of economic activity at midyear.

[...]

Nonfarm payrolls increased 132,000 in June, after swelling 190,000 in May and 122,000 in April, the Labor Department said Friday. Previous reports showed job growth of just 157,000 in May and 80,000 in April. Monthly job growth has averaged a robust 145,000 so far this year. The unemployment rate was unchanged last month at 4.5%. Average hourly earnings increased $0.06, or 0.3%, to $17.38. That was up 3.9% from a year earlier, suggesting tight labor markets still aren't putting much pressure on labor costs.

[...]

The data provide further evidence that the economy has picked up considerable steam after several subpar quarters. Gross domestic product advanced just 0.7% in the first quarter. However, economists expect that to mark a low point of the current cycle with growth likely exceeding 3% in the second quarter.

Let's take a deep breath for a second. First of all, a job creation of 132,000 in June, although "solid" still doesn't keep up with population growth. That over/under number is about 180,000. Job growth of 145,000 can't shouldn't be called "robust" if we fall further behind our growth in population every month. Second, the job gains were based on growth in government hiring? This continues to be the biggest untold story of the current economy - job growth is being fueled largely by growth in the government sector. Finally, I'm not sure how much steam the economy has picked up. We know from prior reports that inventories were depleted so there is some catch up being done there. We also know that housing is on the verge of a collapse, retail stores are starting to report weaker sales results and people, in general, are starting to get the heebie-jeebies.

Let's all just keep clapping though and maybe this pig really will gussy itself up and dance.

Petacchi's Out

Fastest road sprinter in the world, Alessandro Petacchi is not going to the TdF. He was the dominant sprinter in the Giro this year. Speaking of the Giro, Petacchi is suspended, Daniello Diluca (the winner) is under investigation for doping and Eddie Mazzoleni (3rd overall) just got thrown off his team for the TdF for doping. That's a pretty high casualty rate for the race.

Why act all surprised?

I can't really get all worked up over the Libby commutation. It just doesn't rank that high on the list of this administration's misdeeds. What it is, is a very public fuck you to everyone who believes that we are a nation of laws.

For those of us who've been paying attention, we've gotten our faces shoved in the shit so many times now that we can't even smell it anymore.

Could Levi Lepheimer be this year's Bobby Julich?

In 1998, Bobby Julich took 3rd in the TdF. 1998 was the year of the "Festina Affair" where a bunch of top contenders were thrown out of the race and the race itself was plunged into turmoil. Julich finished 17th in 1997, and hasn't come close to 3rd since 1998. Julich is a quality rider who spent a number of years chasing his TdF dreams after 1998, finally realizing in 2004 or so that he was not going to make the podium anymore and was better suited for the smaller stage races and as a helper for stronger teammates (like Ullrich and Kloden) during the TdF.

Looking at his performance over time, I'd be willing to bet that Julich is clean. He was a very promising rider, a beast against the clock, who went sideways against his peers during the time that doping (EPO) became rampant in the sport. He was a rider who probably could have had a different career if (according to my thesis) he had doped or many others had not.

Well, similar to 1998, a bunch of dopers are not racing the TdF this year: Basso, Ullrich, Landis are already out. I'm waiting for the shoe to drop on Vino and the whole Astana team. With that, the race is wide open and ready for a guy like Lepheimer to take it. He, like Julich, is a very solid rider who's finished in the top-10 in past years. He has been one of those riders who has a bad day, or who just can't make it through the whole 3-week circus at the top of his game, in short, a guy not doping.

My only concern with Lephiemer is his renewed affiliation with the Discovery team. The more I read about them, Lance, Bruneel, Basso, the whole group, the more skeptical I am that they are winning on 'bread and water'. Let's see how Levi races this year. I hope he is this year's Julich, but I'm also afraid that he could be this year's Riis.

So far, nothing

Jaksche's confession? So far not much:

"Yes, I did dope, but I never overdid it," continued Jaksche to Der Spiegel. "I never took artificial hemoglobin or stuff like that, where you can get an allergic shock. And you calm yourself by saying that a guy who does bodybuilding takes 16,000 units of growth hormone a day, and I only took 800 units once in a while for regeneration. Then you think: Well, it's not that much after all."

So he only cheated a little. Better than Basso I guess, who claims all he did was think about cheating. Jaksche is not naming names and was paid over $100k Euros to confess. The latter is problematic because it leads to statements like this:

Vinokourov gave one of the earliest reactions to Jaksche's revelations. "Jaksche was contacted by Der Spiegel and offered lots of money," he said to L'Equipe. "It's easy to give evidence when there is a big check in front of you. You always find a good story to justify the sum."

on the same day you get this:

Astana Team leader and Tour de France overall favorite Alexandre Vinokourov revealed to L'Equipe Saturday that he collaborated with Doctor Michele Ferrari,
but only about his physical preparation. Ferrari, was convicted in 2004 for sporting fraud and abuse of his position before the conviction was overturned in the spring of 2006. The Kazakh rider explained that he began collaboration with Ferrari after he left T-Mobile at the end of 2005.

Ferrari is a central figure in the Walsh book I just read, and dirty as hell. Vino's lying. He's also the odds on favorite for the TdF this year, so go figure.

Until riders come out and start naming names, big names, nothing is going to change. It's got to change from within the sport, within the peleton, it can't be imposed from without.

Intellectual Honesty from the WSJ Editorial Pages

I've never seen it. Here is the latest example:

The next time Democratic leaders lament the decline of American industry, please refer them to the current Congressional brawl over auto fuel-efficiency standards. Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and most of their colleagues are siding with upscale environmental lobbies over American carmakers and workers. Call it their Drive-a-Toyota Act... The United Auto Workers warned that even a small mileage increase could cost more than 65,000 jobs.

Yes, that's the Journal, looking out for their old friends, the UAW. It continues:

Detroit has made its share of mistakes, but refusing to compete with smaller, more fuel-efficient cars isn't one of them. GM tried and failed with its Saturn project.

First off, I don't believe the Saturn project was designed to compete with smaller, more fuel-efficient cars primarily but was a way for GM to try to induce more people to buy their cars while cutting out their dealer network (remember "No haggle pricing"?). Second, Saturn didn't succeed because they made shitty cars. The Ion was widely criticized for it's huge gaps in the body panels, its cheap feel and lackluster performance. GM had a chance to revive the brand with a re-badged Opel mid-sized sedan, but it introduced it as a Cadillac instead. It sold barely at all as a Cadillac, but as a Cadillac it looks like what a Saturn should look like. Finally, Saturn was a risky bet anyway. GM was trying to, essentially, create a new car company and it failed.

Here's the rest of that paragraph:

And one reason for that failure is that the main competitive reality facing Detroit for a generation has been the burden of its worker pension and health care costs. The consensus is that those costs add about $1,500 per vehicle compared to Japanese or Korean competitors. The best way to recoup those costs is by making larger vehicles that earn more profit per sale than smaller cars do. Making trucks (protected by a 25% U.S. tariff) and SUVs was entirely rational, and failing to do so would have meant more financial trouble earlier.

Here the WSJ appears to be on the side of tariffs. Pro-union and pro-tariff, from the WSJ? Something's afoot.

Of course there are other ways to extract more value out of a vehicle other than to hide behind tariffs and make 'em bigger. You could, of course, provide a vehicle that would command a premium in the marketplace. By being out in front of R&D rather than continually riding yesterday's wave. You'd think the US auto makers would have learned something from the 70's.

And finally, there's this:

If Mr. Reid truly cared about cutting gas consumption, he and his party would increase the gas tax. But voters are already steamed about $3-a-gallon gas, and Mr. Reid's commitment to lower carbon consumption doesn't go as far as the personal sacrifice of losing Democratic Senate seats.

Imagine, just imagine the response from the right (including, I presume, the WSJ editorial pages) should Reid even think about raising gas taxes.

The WSJ is a great paper with a breathtaking bad editorial section. They should be embarrassed by columns like this one.