The Quiet American

So I went and read The Quiet American. It was one of those books I was always going to read/supposed to read/assigned to read but never read. I figured with the whole Bush kerfuffle now was as good a time as any.

Having read it, I don't think that the White House made a mistake at all equating Bush with Pyle. Pyle is a by-the-book, upfront kind of guy (as evidenced by his dealings with Fowler over Phoung), idealistic and in pursuit of world betterment. Sure he gets used by others for their own purposes (General The), but his heart is in the right place and, most importantly, pure. I'd be willing to bet that that meme plays with a fairly significant part of the country.

Of course, all of this assumes that some critical mass of Americans have actually read (and remember) The Quiet American. If not, this is (just another) an example of geeks yelling at each other over something that nobody cares about.

I really liked the book, by the way, and would recommend it to those of you who've never read it, or who don't remember reading it.

Read the Rudy today, oh boy

If anything, Kaplan was too nice. The article, for those of you interested in reading this piece of shit, is here.

Seriously, Kaplan gives Rudy a BIG pass on some things. Here's one:

America is a nation that loves peace and hates war.

As opposed to whom? Where are the war-loving nations out there? And, for a nation that loves peace, we sure to get ourselves into a whole lot of war. And, just to be clear, I'm not anti-war, but to say that we are a nation that goes around singing "Kumbaya" all day and night is delusional. And it's particularly jarring when Rudy says it because he spends the rest of your essay describing the ass kickings he will dole out as president. But that isn't even the worst sentence in that paragraph:

At the core of all Americans is the belief that all human beings have certain inalienable rights that proceed from God but must be protected by the state.

Which is a curious thing for him to say because I really don't recall him coming out against our policy of sending people down a rathole to be tortured simply because we think they are one of the "bad guys". Oh, and by the way, I am an American and I don't happen to believe that the rights afforded to me in this country (those remaining rights anyway) proceeded from God. But hey, know what? THAT isn't even the worst sentence in that paragraph. This is:

Americans believe that to the extent that nations recognize these rights within their own laws and customs, peace with them is achievable. To the extent that they do not, violence and disorder are much more likely.

If I'm reading this correctly, and I've read it a number of times just to make sure I am, he's saying that we are going to not be at peace (although peace and America are BFF) with any country that does not respect the same inalienable God-given rights that we do. He has just declared that any liberal democracy is going to be treated as a hostile entity under a Rudy presidency. Fan-fucking-tastic!

Let's fast-forward to this little gem:

For diplomacy to succeed, the U.S. government must be united. Adversaries naturally exploit divisions.

Great, then I've got an idea, why don't you stop calling Democrats terrorist appeasers who are going to get everyone killed if they get anywhere near the White House. Because remember, unity begins at home (Mr. Third Marriage). I am so sick of the most divisive people on the planet calling on everyone to be united when it suits their purposes only to later cudgel the slobs stupid enough to go for it. Rudy is a hyper-partisan and whenever you hear him talk about unity, he's really talking about suppressing any type of dissent.

More insanity here:

Defeating the terrorists must be our principal priority in the near future, but we do not have the luxury of focusing on it to the exclusion of other goals. World events unfold whether the United States is engaged or not, and when we are not, they often unfold in ways that are against our interests. The art of managing a large enterprise is to multitask, and so U.S. foreign policy must always be multidimensional.

Claptrap! What is he talking about here? Does he really think that we should have a hand in EVERYTHING that's happening? Good luck with that.

Kaplan mentions this, but I'd like to quote it again for shits and giggles:

U.S. relations with China and Russia will remain complex for the foreseeable future. Americans have no wish to return to the tensions of the Cold War or to launch a new one. We must seek common ground without turning a blind eye to our differences with these two countries. Like America, they have a fundamental stake in the health of the international system. But too often, their governments act shortsightedly, undermining their long-term interest in international norms for the sake of near-term gains. Even as we work with these countries on economic and security issues, the U.S. government should not be silent about their unhelpful behavior or human rights abuses. Washington should also make clear that only if China and Russia move toward democracy, civil liberties, and an open and uncorrupted economy will they benefit from the vast possibilities available in the world today.

This may be one of the most arrogant and paternalistic things I've ever read from Rudy, and boy that's saying something. THEY act shortsightedly? I've got a 4-letter word for Rudy, I-R-A-Q. Some great long-term thinking there. And, to be blunt, China has been kicking our ass in strategic thinking and the judicious use of soft power lately. Lastly, as Kaplan also points out, China and Russia seem to be doing OK in the world without our help (lead paint aside).

He calls for the invasion of Cuba:

But America should take nothing for granted. It must stand ready to help the Cuban people reclaim their liberty and resist any step that allows a decrepit, corrupt regime from consolidating its power under Raúl Castro. Only a commitment to free people and free markets will bring a prosperous future to Cuba and all of Latin America.

And makes absolutely no sense about the UN:

The UN has proved irrelevant to the resolution of almost every major dispute of the last 50 years. Worse, it has failed to combat terrorism and human rights abuses. It has not lived up to the great hopes that inspired its creation. Too often, it has been weak, indecisive, and outright corrupt. The UN's charter and the speeches of its members' leaders have meant little because its members' deeds have frequently fallen short. International law and institutions exist to serve peoples and nations, but many leaders act as if the reverse were true -- that is, as if institutions, not the ends to be achieved, were the important thing. Despite the UN's flaws, however, the great objectives of humanity would become even more difficult to achieve without mechanisms for international discussion.

Got that? The UN is a worthless piece of shit taking up good real estate on the East Side, but hey, it's a worthless piece of shit working towards the "objectives of humanity". To quote Jon Stewart, "WHAAAA?"

Like I said, Kaplan let's him off the hook too often. But I guess that's my point. Everyone, anyone, could read through this piece of garbage and come up with pages and pages of nonsense without overlapping things that were previously pointed out. It's not just bad, it's breathtakingly bad. It's nauseatingly bad.

One final thought - as bad as it is, I'm also amazed at how little it says. Beyond platitudes and generalizations that is. Kaplan is right on that, Rudy doesn't say how he's going to do anything. Well, that's not entirely true, he is going to "give people a hand up rather than a handout". Hey Rudy, the 80's are calling, they have your hair and would like to trade it for their handout statement.

I really, really don't like Rudy Giuliani.

Some perspective please?

Vino:

In cycling nobody respects human rights," said Vinokourov in an exclusive interview with Reuters. "The situation is now worse than any other sport. I hope the truth will be found and I am going to fight for it."
Greeted by his father and about 20 supporting fans who were decked out with flowers and banners, Vino said, "I am not going to end my career like this so we will fight on."
Vino denounced cycling's current anti-doping procedures, calling them "a clear violation of human rights." He added, "You have to say three months in advance where you are planning to be, at what hour and minute. It's not possible."

Vino, stop talking. Now. You cheated and got caught. Want to cheat and not get caught? Go play soccer. Or baseball, they celebrate cheats there.

Not a good day for Rudy

Sick, exaggerating son-of-a-bitch:

A complete record of Mr. Giuliani’s exposure to the site is not available for the chaotic six days after the attack, when he was a frequent visitor. But an exhaustively detailed account from his mayoral archive, revised after the events to account for last-minute changes on scheduled stops, does exist for the period of Sept. 17 to Dec. 16, 2001. It shows he was there for a total of 29 hours in those three months, often for short periods or to visit locations adjacent to the rubble. In that same period, many rescue and recovery workers put in daily 12-hour shifts.

So, maybe he misspoke last week? No:

And in September 2006, The Associated Press quoted him as saying of ground zero, “I spent as much time here as anyone,” and then adding, “I was here five, six times a day for four months. I kind of thought of it as living here.”

That kind of takes the whole, "What I meant was the initial 4 days..." argument. How does his office respond to this information? Like this:

“Hundreds of thousands of people around the country and the world saw Rudy Giuliani’s steadfast and determined leadership firsthand at a time when we needed it most,” the statement said. “In the days surrounding September 11th, the safety and health of all those involved in the search and recovery efforts was Mayor Giuliani’s No. 1 one priority. Make no mistake, it is the very same concern Mayor Giuliani continues to express today when it comes to all those who have made tremendous sacrifices at ground zero.”

For those of you who need a bullshit to English translation, it means (roughly), "Whoa, when the fuck did you start fact-checking shit?"

He is a bad, bad man. I don't care how much the media loves him, his story, his jackboots. I still maintain that there is no way he wins the nomination, and I personally intend to sit around with a great big bowl of popcorn as I watch him go down in flames.

Rudy

I must admit, I'm now interested in reading the FA piece he did. Kaplan's read it. He's not very impressed:

Rudy Giuliani's essay in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs, laying out his ideas for a new U.S. foreign policy, is one of the shallowest articles of its kind I've ever read. Had it been written for a freshman course on international relations, it would deserve at best a C-minus (with a concerned note to come see the professor as soon as possible). That it was written by a man who wants to be president—and who recently said that he understands the terrorist threat "better than anyone else running"—is either the stuff of high satire or cause to consider moving to, or out of, the country.

Now that's a lede! In fact, it's my second favorite ever lede about Rudy. This one is my favorite:

On 9/11, all Americans were frightened children, and in a moment of mythic personal heroism, Mayor Giuliani filled the gaping leadership void. The president looked like a petrified chimp; Cheney was spirited to an underground bunker. Only Giuliani could pull himself together sufficiently to get on TV in the midst of the wreckage and show America that a grown-up was still breathing. On that terrible day our reptile brains looked at Rudy Giuliani and said, "We're OK now. Daddy's home."

And we forgot, some for a moment, some permanently, that Daddy was psycho.

Anyway, back to Kaplan. He picks apart Rudy's piece by exerpting a section then ripping it to shreds. Perhaps not the most fair treatment, context and all that does matter sometimes, but it is very entertaining to read. And Kaplan really doesn't hold back:

"Constellations of satellites that can watch arms factories everywhere around the globe, day and night, above- and belowground ... must be part of America's arsenal."

Yes, and while we're at it, let's build anti-gravity machines, mind-reading robots, X-ray-vision telescopes, speed-of-light transporter-beams, time-travel kits, and intercontinental heat-seeking bullets. It's bad enough that so many foreigners believe in the omniscience of U.S. intelligence agencies; it's appalling that a presidential candidate seems to believe such sci-fi fantasies, too.

I'm going to read the FA piece in full. Somehow I don't think that Rudy is saved by context.

Rudy is emerging as a joke, a really dangerous joke, but a joke nonetheless. The more I hear, the more important it becomes to me to make sure this man never gets near the White House.

Why I don't watch much TV

Carpetbagger.

I heard Biden on the original quote and realized that I really dislike Joe Biden. To say that John Kerry was not a religious candidate was to completely, intentionally, not pay attention to the last election.

We all know my views on religion - I'm clearly no fan of the religious posturing that consumes politicians in this country. To somehow state that politicians on either side aren't sufficiently religious is just ridiculous.

This is one example among many where the media is manufacturing a meme out of thin air. They should be called on it more than they are.

More housing

Same article as a prior post.


For those of you without subscriptions to the WSJ, the article profiles a family, the Montes, who bought a house 2 years ago in Fullerton, California. Their credit wasn't that good, and they had a combined income of $90,000/year. They decided they should go and buy a $567,000 house with no money down and a 2/28 interest-only mortgage.


They are going to lose their house. It doesn't say so explicitly in the article, but there is no way they'll be able to keep it. The current payment on the house is $3,200/month in interest, which will reset in December for the remaining 28 years on the note. They estimate that their monthly payments may rise to $4,200/month. That's just the note. On top of that they have taxes, insurance and $700/month in car loans. The article doesn't mention credit card debt, but I'm going to assume that the Montes are like every other American family out there and throw in some of that too. Figure $200/month in credit card debt. That's over $5,000 in debt servicing, a ratio of 66%.


Let me say that again, 2/3 of their GROSS income will go to servicing debt.


They are going to lose their house.


This is where this whole housing mess gets very complicated for me. Clearly, the Montes bought a house that they couldn't afford and have, for the past two years, been living in a house that they shouldn't be living in. I'd usually be inclined to write them off - hey sometimes bad decisions have consequences. But I waver when I read things like this:

Like many people who jumped into the rising housing market in recent years, they had little money for a down payment and chose a loan that would hold their monthly payments down for the first two years, then "reset" to a much higher level. Mr. and Mrs. Montes say their mortgage broker assured them they would be able to refinance in a couple of years to keep their payments affordable.

And this:

The Montes family got their loan through a mortgage broker in Rancho Cucamonga. Using what was then a common formula, the broker offered to arrange for two loans, one to cover about 80% of the home price and the other, a so-called piggyback loan, for the rest. For the first two years, their total monthly mortgage payments are about $3,200. The loans are initially interest-only. Mr. Montes recalls feeling edgy about whether he would be able to afford the higher costs -- about $900 more per month -- due to take effect after two years. But he says the broker assured him he could refinance before those costs kicked in.

paired with this:

Worse for the Monteses, they learned that they faced a $12,000 prepayment penalty if they refinanced within three years of the original mortgages -- something that Mr. Montes says wasn't made clear to him when he took out those loans.

Housing is one place where I really struggle balancing the free market with paternalism. At a minimum, mortgage brokers should have a fiduciary responsibility to the people they arrange mortgages for. I think there are a huge number of people who got talked into something - namely a house they couldn't afford - that they wanted very badly. They got talked into it by a series of people who likely won't get badly hurt if the deal goes bad - the dealmakers will still have a home to live in at least. It just doesn't really seem all that fair to me.

Some interesting housing stats

From today's WSJ:

Being stuck with little or no home equity is no longer a rare situation. Christopher Cagan, director of research at First American CoreLogic, a housing and mortgage data supplier in Santa Ana, recently found that nearly 7% of 32 million U.S. households studied as of December owed more than their homes were worth, based on computer estimates of the property values. An additional 4% had home equity of 5% or less. Since then, house prices have edged down in much of the country, erasing more home equity.

[...]

Partly as a result, foreclosures are surging. Moody's Economy.com, a research firm in West Chester, Pa., projects that lenders will acquire about 760,000 homes through foreclosure this year and 935,000 in 2008, up from an average of about 440,000 a year from 2000 through 2006.

I'm throwing the bullshit flag

On this:

"We couldn't in good conscience ask someone to spend the sort of money that it would require to sponsor the team in the current situation," said Bill Stapleton, general manager of Tailwind Sports. "It's not an environment conducive in our opinion to make an investment."

[...]

"We had a firm commitment for three years. It wasn't signed and sealed, but we were 90 percent there," Armstrong said. "No. 1, this isn't about a lack of a sponsor. If that were the case we would say that in October, not in August. No. 2, it's not a statement. We're just deciding it's a good time to step aside."

[...]

"It's a sad for American cycling," Armstrong said. "The guys at ASO are talking about taking the Tour back to national teams like they did in the olden days. If something like that would happen, someone's $15 million investment is
worth zero. Issues like that are too unknown. It's too risky to ask that kind of money. There are too many questions within the sport."

For crying out loud, just say you couldn't find someone willing to pony up the $45 million in today's market. Boy, it sure is nice that Lance, et. al. are watching out for all those corporations to make sure they don't waste their money on sponsorship.

The reasoning provided is absurd. Do they think that anyone believes it? How dumb do they think we are?

Umm...

Posted without further comment:

Sioux Falls police Tuesday arrested a 60-year-old man for burglary and for what they believe is at least two years worth of video-taped public sex acts. Verle Peter Dills was arrested at his home at 2613 W. Bailey St. after a man who lives in the 1200 block of North Kiwanis Avenue chased Dills out of his yard Monday evening, police spokesman Loren McManus said. The man saw Dills with a video camera and tripod and chased him for a short distance, McManus said. When the man returned home, Dills also returned with his camera and again was chased from the yard. He was seen entering the garage at 2613 W. Bailey St., McManus said. There police found the video camera and a “large amount” of 8mm and VHS video of Dills engaged in masturbation and sex acts with traffic signs near his home, McManus said.

How do I hate Rudy?

Let me count the ways!

Speaking to reporters in Cincinnati, Giuliani said: "I was at ground zero as often, if not more, than most of the workers. ... I was there working with them. I was exposed to exactly the same things they were exposed to. So in that sense, I'm one of them."

It could be me, but as I remember it, as I was sitting in my apartment in Brooklyn breathing the stench that blew over from NYC for months after 9/11, or while I was walking from the subway to work, right past the smoldering site, I really don't recall seeing many pictures of Rudy in the pit digging. I do remember some speeches but, and please feel free to correct my faulty memory, I really don't recall the former Mayor pitching in much on the physical side of things. I cannot imagine what those workers went through in clearing up the site and I'd be embarrassed if anyone made any type of comparison between me and them (in a similar vein I get pissed when people talk about how heroic they were to go back to work downtown after the attacks). It takes hubris the size of Cleveland to proclaim yourself one of them because you occasionally went down there for some death tourism and a photo op.

"As often, if not more"?! Those guys worked 60-80 hour weeks down there for months. Jesus Rudy, who do you think you are? Wait, could he actually think he's... Jesus?

He's done enough to finish his campaign three times over already. How he is still campaigning is beyond me.

Shit like this is why I have such a back load in housing posts.

Discovery done!

Wow.

Tailwind Sports has announced the end of the Discovery Channel Pro Cycling Team today, confirming rumours that cropped up when the team failed to announce a new sponsor after winning the Tour de France. The team was given notice that the Discovery Channel would not renew its sponsorship back in February, leading to a long and intensive search for a replacement sponsor. Despite having won eight Tours de France, the team will fold at the end of this season, leaving 27 riders looking for new jobs, including 2007 Tour winner Alberto Contador, third place finisher Levi Leipheimer, and eighth place finisher Yaroslav Popovych. American George Hincapie is rumoured to have already signed with T-Mobile for the upcoming year, a team whose sponsor was uncertain to continue in the sport until rigorous talks led to a renewal of commitment from the sponsor with plenty of conditions.

Lots of talent out there for the taking now.

Housing

Much more coming from me on this over the next few posts, but for now, I'd like to you join the NAR in clapping louder:

The National Association of Realtors again lowered its forecast for existing U.S. home sales in 2007, but said the market wasn't likely to suffer any further sharp downturns.

[...]

Lawrence Yun, NAR's senior economist, said the market was likely to be relatively stable going forward, suggesting that the worst drops in activity are behind the housing sector. "Existing-home sales should be relatively stable over the next few months, holding in a modest range, with some pent-up demand growing from buyers who've been on the sidelines," Mr. Yun said in a statement. Mr. Yun continued to forecast a relatively mild upturn in housing activity towards the end of this year and going into 2008. "A modest upturn is projected for existing-home sales toward the end of the year, with broader improvement to include the new-home market by the middle of 2008," he said.

I've got one question for Mr. Yun: where are these people going to get the financing? I can't see mobs of people storming into the real estate market right now. Or any time soon. Mr. Yun, you earn More Palaver's "Hack of the Day" award for Thursday, August 10. Congratulations!

The New Hampshire primary moved again!

To yesterday! Take that South Carolina!

Uh-oh

Wonder what this is all about:

Tour de France winner Alberto Contador has scheduled a press event this Friday in Spain, but says he will decline to answer reporters' questions after he reads a prepared statement. Contador issued a release Wednesday notifying media of his plans to read a statement at the offices of Spain's national sports council - the Consejo Superior de Deportes - in Madrid.

I'm assuming it's Puerto-related stuff, but these days who the hell knows.

In other news, another Astana rider has come up positive for blood doping. Must be Thursday.

More FISA thoughts

Lithwick brings up something else:

With this FISA vote, the Democrats have compromised the investigation into the U.S. attorney scandal. They've shown themselves either to be participating in an empty political witch hunt or curiously willing to surrender our civil liberties to someone who has shown—time and again—that he cannot be trusted to safeguard them. The image of Democrats hypocritically berating the attorney general with fingers crossed behind their backs is ultimately no less appalling than an attorney general swearing to uphold the Constitution with fingers crossed behind his own.

Jim Webb voted yes on this. That surprised me. I guess it shouldn't given his history and all, but I would have bet that Webb would be seeking to restrain the administration a bit.

Here are the 16 Dems who voted for it: Evan Bayh, Thomas Carper, Bob Casey, Kent Conrad, Dianne Feinstein, Daniel Inouye, Amy Klobuchar, Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln, Claire McCaskill, Barbara Mikulski, Ben Nelson, Bill Nelson, Mark Pryor, Kenneth Salazar, Jim Webb

John Kerry didn't vote. Asshole.

No Republicans voted against it. Dick Lugar, Trent Lott and John McCain all didn't vote. Isn't it amazing how many votes McCain is missing these days? At what point do we start to ask him why.

Lieberman voted in favor. Surprise. I hope he gets his... whatever he's trying to position himself for.

Susan Collins voted in favor. Tom Allen must be smiling.

McSweeney's Friday

Special Wednesday edition:

Dick Cheney vs. Phil Leotardo

Nardelli?!

WTF? Seriously. I don't really care what type of turnaround guy he is, I don't understand how you hire a guy that just got forced out of another job under pressure for exorbitant compensation and a long-lagging stock price. Note that the stock was lagging in a time of historic home appreciation and equity extraction.

Not a good first move for the new Chrysler, not in my opinion anyway.

I think that the UAW is also got to be feeling a tad hosed in all of this. Thoughts?

A pox on both their houses

I can't believe this:

President Bush signed into law on Sunday legislation that broadly expanded the government’s authority to eavesdrop on the international telephone calls and e-mail messages of American citizens without warrants. Congressional aides and others familiar with the details of the law said that its impact went far beyond the small fixes that administration officials had said were needed to gather information about foreign terrorists. They said seemingly subtle changes in legislative language would sharply alter the legal limits on the government’s ability to monitor millions of phone calls and e-mail messages going in and out of the United States.

Have they learned nothing in the last 6 years? Have they not gotten through their thick skulls that (1) no matter what they do, Republicans are going to call them soft on terror, (2) traditional norms don't constrain this administration, but one hope we have had is that their behavior is was illegal and therefore prosecutable by someone, sometime?

No, they've learned nothing. Instead they surrender, pumping themselves up with smoke (a six month sunset provision) and mirrors (an alternative bill introduced AFTER the current one passed). 6 months from now is February 2008, right at the beginning of the primary cycle. If they are so afraid of being called weak now, imagine the fright they'll feel in February once the noise machine really starts cranking up.

This morning, I am disgusted.

More cycling

Just want to vent today. I'm assuming that German TV has no problems with the Bundesliga as we all know that there is no doping in professional soccer (football). I would just like to see some consistency here. Will they stop showing the Olympics if a swimmer turns up positive in China?

Housing Ugliness Continues

This is really ugly:

American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. shares plunged 90 percent after the lender said it doesn't have cash to fund new loans, stranding thousands of home buyers and putting the company on the brink of failure. Investment banks cut off credit lines, leaving American Home without money yesterday for $300 million of mortgages it had already promised, the Melville, New York-based company said in a statement today. It anticipates that $450 million to $500 million of loans probably won't get funded today, and the lender may have to sell off its assets.

Having recently purchased a home, one of the biggest fears I had in the closing days before the closing was that my lender would somehow go belly-up. I can't imagine being in the position of some of these buyers.

At a median home price of about $225K, that's 2,000 home deals falling through due to lack of funding. It's unclear from the article, but that could just be TODAY'S American Home Mortgage fundings. Things are (sadly) getting more ugly every day.